Above: A look at the tax forecast that voters should be aware of as they make their mind on Town budgets and Articles. Figures are based on ave. home assessed value of $983,796.42 in FY26, rising by 4% per following year. (graph created by Beth Melo, extrapolated from Town data)
On Monday night, voters are being asked to approve budgets and spending Articles that impact taxes for next year and beyond. Before voting on Monday, I wanted to better understand the Town’s financial outlook and what it will mean both with and without the building project. I’m sharing with readers what I learned.
For next year alone, residents are already facing a 7.37% hike based on the Town’s recommended budgets and Articles. That would go up to 7.9% if voters subsequently approve the big school building project in a month.
[Note: Leading up to the Special Town Meeting in May, I will be writing more about the building project, including the Financial Presentation. But this is just my attempt to focus on fiscal outlook before Annual Town Meeting.]
Below are my charts and graphs depicting the Town’s forecast for operating budgets and anticipated expenses, including projects on the horizon. (The data is rough because I compared two sets of the Town’s recently shared data and some of their figures have been in flux recently.)
These figures are based on ave. home assessed value of $983,796.42 in FY26, rising by 4% per following year:
On Friday, the Advisory Committee issued its Report to Annual Town Meeting. That included data on the projected tax rates for future years. The committee recommended the Town’s proposed budgets with the big tax hike. But it also warned about an impending bigger tax hike for Fiscal Year 2027 that would require voters to pass an override at the ballot to fund Town services, even if the Neary project isn’t approved. You can read about that here.
Earlier in the week, the Neary Building Financial Subcommittee gave a presentation and answered questions about the proposed building project.
In the presentation, Chair Kathy Cook explained that the Town is projecting the “net” costs for the project, will cost residential taxpayers an average of about $700 extra per year for 30 years of debt service payments. That would start with a smaller payment in FY2032. Those payments will vary by year. And Cook clarified for me that other project expenses will kick in much sooner.
The financial forecast only listed expected tax increases with the Neary project baked in. It didn’t specify how that compared to the forecast without the project.
The presentation was based on projected assessed average single family home values. According to Cook, the model assumed a 4% increase in those values each year.
To create the above graphs, I made calculations from the report and presentation, using the updated average home value assumed for FY26 in Advisory’s report.
Costs the Town projected (and what might be missed)
The presentation provided a list of upcoming big expenses the Town is expecting it will need to borrow for. (The anticipated debt payments were included in their figures.) You can check out that list below. (The costs listed for a boiler at Trottier Middle School and roof replacement at Woodward School are showing the total project cost and the smaller amount the Town should need to pay assuming that the state covers a share of the expense.)
During another Neary Building Project discussion on Thursday night, Select Board Member Al Hamilton expressed skepticism that the list fully covers some expenses he is anticipating. He predicted that many more of the old corrugated steel culverts installed under Town roads will fail over the next 15 years.
In the discussion with the Neary Building Committee, Select Board, Advisory Committee and others, members acknowledged that there are regularly unforeseen expenses that can’t be predicted.
It is worth noting that the Advisory Committee’s report did include some thoughts about how they hope the Town may be able to reign in some of its future operating costs or increase offsetting revenues.
To look at the Financial Presentation slides (the version that was updated for yesterday morning’s meeting), click here. To view the Financial subcommittee’s virtual meeting on Monday night, click here.
Reminder, the April 7th Annual Town Meeting opens at Trottier Middle School at 6:30 pm. Read more about that here. (The Special Town Meeting on the Neary Project will be on Saturday, May 10th.)
Beth, thank you for all your articles on Town Meeting. I appreciate your work, and I know many others do, too!